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2012–13 South Pacific cyclone season
The 2012–13 South Pacific cyclone season was a below average tropical cyclone season, with six tropical cyclones occurring within the basin between 160°E and 120°W. The season officially ran from November 1, 2012 to April 30, 2013, however the last tropical disturbance was last noted on May 1, as it moved into the subtropics. During the season, tropical cyclones were officially monitored by the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS), Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and New Zealand's MetService. The United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other national meteorological services including Météo-France and NOAA also monitored the basin during the season. During the season there were 22 significant tropical disturbances assigned a number and a F suffix by the FMS's Regional Specialized Meteorological Center in Nadi, Fiji (RSMC Nadi), including Severe Tropical Cyclone Sandra which moved into the basin from the Australian region on March 9. The BoM, MetService and RSMC Nadi all estimated sustained wind speeds over a period of 10-minutes and used the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale, while the JTWC estimated sustained winds over a 1-minute period, which are subsequently compared to the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHS).
==Seasonal forecasts==
Ahead of the cyclone season, RSMC Nadi, TCWC Wellington, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2012. The outlook took into account the ENSO neutral conditions and near normal sea surface temperature anomalies that had been observed across the Pacific.〔 As a result, the outlook called for a near average number of tropical cyclones for the 2012–13 season, with nine to twelve named tropical cyclones predicted to occur between 135°E and 120°W compared to an average of 10.〔 At least two of the tropical cyclones were expected to become category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while one might intensify into a category 4 severe tropical cyclone.〔 The outlook also noted within past analogues, category 5 severe tropical cyclones had not been prominent for ENSO neutral seasons, but the most recent analogue suggested that this type of event was possible.〔
In addition to contributing towards the outlook, RSMC Nadi and the BoM issued their own seasonal forecasts for the South Pacific region. The BoM issued 3 seasonal forecasts for the South Pacific region between 142.5°E and 120°W, one for the Western Southern Pacific region between 142.5°E and 165°E and one for the Eastern Southern Pacific region between 165°E and 120°W.〔 They noted that the current neutral ENSO conditions would historically suggest the South Pacific region as a whole would experience near average tropical cyclone activity during the coming season.〔 However, because of the warmer than average sea surface temperatures that were experienced in the central equatorial Pacific between July — September 2012, the western Southern Pacific had a 65% chance for average to below average tropical cyclone activity.〔 For the Eastern part of the region, the BoM predicted that it had a 55% chance of above average tropical cyclones, while for the overall region, they predicted that the region would experience a near average amount of tropical cyclones with a 53% chance of having an above average number of tropical cyclones.〔 Within their outlook RSMC Nadi predicted that between seven and ten tropical cyclones, would occur within the basin compared to an average of around 7.4 cyclones.〔 At least four of the tropical cyclones were expected to become category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while two-three might intensify into a category 4 or 5 severe tropical cyclones.〔 They also reported that the tropical cyclone genesis trough was expected to be located near the International Dateline.〔 This was based on the ENSO Neutral conditions, and the existence of the warm pool of sea surface and sub surface temperature anomalies near the dateline.〔
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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